- India’s external debt, as at end-March 2013, was placed at US$ 390.0 billion showing an increase of US$ 44.6 billion or 12.9 per cent over the level at end-March 2012.
- The share of short-term debt in total debt, by original maturity, was 24.8 per cent. Based on residual maturity, short-term debt accounted for 44.2 per cent of the total external debt as at end-March 2013. Of this, the share of NRI deposits was 28.4 per cent.
- The residual maturity profile and comparable countries’ debt profiles are as per the following tables:
Residual Maturity
|
< 1Y
|
1Y to2Y
|
2Y to 3Y
|
> 3Years
|
Total
|
Total External Debt
($Bn)
|
172
|
33
|
34
|
151
|
390
|
Corporate Debt
($Bn)
|
110
|
20
|
24
|
80
|
234
|
Sovereign Debt
($Bn)
|
13
|
6
|
6
|
60
|
85
|
NRI Deposits ($Bn)
|
49
|
7
|
4
|
11
|
71
|
CAD as % of GDP
|
2013
|
2012
|
2011
|
India
|
-5.10%
|
-4.65%
|
-2.99%
|
Brazil
|
-3.01%
|
-2.01%
|
-2.21%
|
Russia
|
2.98%
|
5.62%
|
4.21%
|
South Africa
|
-5.80%
|
-5.00%
|
-2.60%
|
Thailand
|
0.10%
|
0.66%
|
3.07%
|
Indonesia
|
-3.08%
|
-0.54%
|
0.82%
|
Malaysia
|
5.19%
|
10.44%
|
10.15%
|
Currency
|
1M%
|
3M%
|
6M%
|
YTD%
|
INR
|
-5.67%
|
-12.26%
|
-14.96%
|
-13.19%
|
BRL
|
-5.74%
|
-12.98%
|
-15.62%
|
-12.66%
|
RUB
|
-2.03%
|
-4.89%
|
-7.78%
|
-7.51%
|
ZAR
|
-5.48%
|
-6.98%
|
-13.47%
|
-17.28%
|
THB
|
-2.80%
|
-6.08%
|
-6.33%
|
-3.94%
|
IDR
|
-7.76%
|
-11.53%
|
-12.25%
|
-11.44%
|
MYR
|
-3.70%
|
-8.11%
|
-6.14%
|
-7.35%
|
- Easier overseas borrowing norms, especially for oil companies ($6 Bn): Two changes done in this regard – one, oil companies are allowed to raise $4 Bn to meet working capital requirements; two, subsidies of MNCs are allowed to raise debt from parent companies – expected to raise $2 Bn
- Liberalization of the non-resident India (NRI) deposit scheme ($1 Bn)
- Issuance of quasi-sovereign bonds ($4 Bn): Three public-sector financial institutions are expected to raise $4Bn by issuing quasi-sovereign bonds. Sovereign wealth funds can invest up to 30% in the INR 480bn of tax-free bonds to be issued by public-sector financial institutions. If fully utilised this could provide another $2 Bn of additional inflows in the remainder of FY14.
- Import duty hikes: Gold and Silver import duties have been hiked to 10% from 8% and 6% respectively; going by recent record, this is not likely to provide immediate impact.
Measures
|
FX
|
Rates
|
Credit Growth
|
RBI Intervention:
continuation of periodic central bank action
|
Positive: Direct
impact. Medium term impact is bad owing to erosion of reserves
|
Negative: as
liquidity is expected to become tighter
|
Neutral
|
Continuation of
Tight Liquidity Conditions
|
Neutral: Positive
flows in debt likely to be offset by negative flows from equity
|
Negative: Direct
impact.
|
Negative: NPA
concerns to rise
|
External Fund Raising (incl quasi sovereign, NRI Depo
& ECBs)
|
Positive: Ease funding concerns and positive capital flows
|
Positive: Can potentially lead to early relaxation of
tight liquidity measures
|
Positive: Similar to Rates impact, headwinds are reduced
|