Monday, April 13, 2015

Still bearish on Gold

Today morning I read an article regarding why rising interest rates are good for gold prices, the author believes two things for gold prices to go up: one, gold is no longer the only non-yielding asset, and two, historically (vide some charts) gold prices tend to go up with rising interest rates.

 I believe there is some credence to the first point that gold is now comparable to cash in that lot of countries have zero or near zero or sub-zero cash rates. However, it is no advantage for gold; it is just that the disadvantage has reduced somewhat. The second idea suggested in the article seems to mistake correlation for causation when it suggests rising interest rates are good for gold prices: in 1970s, rising inflation was the reason behind both higher interest rates and higher gold prices. In the current scenario where central banks world over are struggling with the opposite struggle with respect to inflation, the rationale suggested in the article seems incorrect.

I still maintain my bearish view on Gold.

Update 17-Sep-2015:
This post was made on 13 April 2015, just adding the following chart which highlights the price movement in Gold since the time of the post.

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