I went to see Avatar - the 3D version - yesterday in PVR-Phoenix, but when I came out I had a feeling I am leaving the planet Pandora. The visual effects are so out-of-the-world (literally!), you would not think, even once, that it is fiction. The picturization is such that if at all man finds life in another planet, a common man would think of this movie's portrayal as to how the new planet would actually be. Some of the scenes in the movie are dream-like: something which is very hard to conjure even in the longest siesta on a Saturday afternoon. Quoting from elsewhere: when the Oscar nominations for the year are announced, this movie would feature in all possible technical categories and most likely win all of those. I strongly recommend all to watch this in 3D and enjoy the ultimate movie experience. Having said that, the story is not something out of the ordinary - it is a simple hero-saves-people storyline. Go for this movie and let James Cameron take you for a trip around Pandora.
Is this the greatest movie in the recent past? I would say 'The Dark Knight' is easily the best in the recent past, if not the greatest of all time. Nonetheless, I would watch Avatar at least twice again.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
Thiruvalluvar Statue
Human Body:Appendix::Tamilnadu-Karnataka Peace:Thiruvalluvar Statue
The DemiGod Thiruvalluvar had already written a kural (couplet) on avoiding such farcical, useless and potentially dangerous deeds. Remembering from one of my Thirukkural lessons in School:
The DemiGod Thiruvalluvar had already written a kural (couplet) on avoiding such farcical, useless and potentially dangerous deeds. Remembering from one of my Thirukkural lessons in School:
461. அழிவதூஉம் ஆவதூஉம் ஆகி வழிபயக்கும்
ஊதியமும் சூழ்ந்து செயல்
Weigh well output the loss and gain
And proper action ascertain.
ஊதியமும் சூழ்ந்து செயல்
Weigh well output the loss and gain
And proper action ascertain.
I do not think the statue would in any way help the bonhomie between Tamilnadu and Karnataka; instead it would just act as sink for crows and source of further disputes.
Monday, August 03, 2009
Sustainability of GDP
Oftentimes it is considered that a growing GDP is a panacea. We (at least yours truly) have believed that an increased Government spending and investment in infrastructure will ‘always’ lead to growth in GDP and hence it contributes towards the panacea for all economic frailties. But as this article from ‘The Economist’ conveys, the constituents of GDP will be an important factor in deciding whether or not the increased investments will have sustainable impact on GDP.
Let me try to give a brief summary of the above article:
GDP = Consumer Spending + Government Spending + Investments + (Exports – Imports)
Further breaking down, GDP = (Household Spending + Corporate Spending) + Government Spending + Investments + (Exports – Imports)
If growth in GDP is not accompanied by growth in Household Spending, that growth in GDP would be short term and would not be sustainable in the long run. Hence for a sustainable and long term growth in GDP, the Governments should target increasing contribution of Household Spending to GDP.
Let me try to give a brief summary of the above article:
GDP = Consumer Spending + Government Spending + Investments + (Exports – Imports)
Further breaking down, GDP = (Household Spending + Corporate Spending) + Government Spending + Investments + (Exports – Imports)
If growth in GDP is not accompanied by growth in Household Spending, that growth in GDP would be short term and would not be sustainable in the long run. Hence for a sustainable and long term growth in GDP, the Governments should target increasing contribution of Household Spending to GDP.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Friday, July 17, 2009
A Thought
Why do we celebrate 'Patriotism'?
Sometimes I think patriotism is one of the root causes of many evils in the world today.
Sometimes I think patriotism is one of the root causes of many evils in the world today.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Economic Ramblings
Cross posted from my other blog: Lifestyle Investments
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Interest Rates – some of the popular terms any student of Economics will go through, somewhat boringly, in their introductory courses. These concepts when linked to the real world can throw some interesting viewpoints about the various burning issues. In the last 12 months, the central banks/Governments of most countries have, more or less, uniformly and uncharacteristically followed expansive monetary policies to the extent of bringing interest rates close to 0%. This is inline with the Governments’ fiscal policies which are more or less expansive – at least at planning level. An expansive monetary policy and expansive fiscal policy will ring a nice note in one’s ears that things are going fine with the economies. In most cases, this could be true; it may not be so this time around.
If the Governments go for an expansive fiscal policy, the Government will spur spending. For spending, the Government needs money – there are multiple options for the Government to get the money. One, it can print money; two, it can issue bonds and raise debts. The former has its own implications on interest rates and the dreaded fear of deflation resulting in increase of the real cost of borrowing. The latter, however, depends on some other factor so far not mentioned: Debt-to-GDP ratio among other things. The Government’s ability to borrow is inversely proportional to the Debt-to-GDP ratio – less the debt to GDP, the better the borrowing ability of the Government – sounds very intuitive.
There is always a partisan view of the credit rating agencies’ role in the financial world. Irrespective of the side you are in, there is a considerable weight attached to the ratings given out by these agencies. It is only common-sense to believe these agencies downgrade those countries with less borrowing power and less repaying capacity. A very simple indicator of these is the debt-to-GDP ratio. Let us take the case of India. If Debt-to-GDP ratio increases (as this would be most likely the case in the late recession / early recovery stage of the business cycle that we are in; as the GDP would not rise as fast as the rise in debt), the agencies downgrade the ratings of the Government. If this happens, there is a double whammy effect as the existing Government bonds would lose value, investors may begin to dump and the Government would be at a disadvantage at raising money from the markets. Essentially, the market forces would be against an expansive fiscal policy. This is very pertinent in India’s case with a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 58% (compare this to Chinese Debt to GDP ratio of 18%) – so Government may not be able to follow expansive fiscal policy along with an expansive monetary policy.
If it persists with expansive monetary policy in this scenario, there would be too much money chasing too little economic activity, leading to the most commonly known economic term – Inflation. With so much political sense also attached to Inflation, no Government will be willing to let this happen. So, are we heading towards restrictive monetary and restrictive fiscal policies: not likely as this again also has a political and economic cost attached with the R-word and no one wants it. All this means is that the Government has to raise money from somewhere without losing its credit worthiness. The likely sources, I believe, would be PSU divestments, tightening of personal tax regime among other things. All this means is the Government would not be able to undertake a 'market-friendly' budget this time - expect no major tax cuts, duty cuts etc.
The scenario mentioned about India does hold true for developed economies like US (whose monetary policies are more expansive and debt-to-GDP ratio is higher). If China believes the US dollar denominated treasuries are downgradeable, it would be Armageddon – again in 2009. Brace yourself.
If the Governments go for an expansive fiscal policy, the Government will spur spending. For spending, the Government needs money – there are multiple options for the Government to get the money. One, it can print money; two, it can issue bonds and raise debts. The former has its own implications on interest rates and the dreaded fear of deflation resulting in increase of the real cost of borrowing. The latter, however, depends on some other factor so far not mentioned: Debt-to-GDP ratio among other things. The Government’s ability to borrow is inversely proportional to the Debt-to-GDP ratio – less the debt to GDP, the better the borrowing ability of the Government – sounds very intuitive.
There is always a partisan view of the credit rating agencies’ role in the financial world. Irrespective of the side you are in, there is a considerable weight attached to the ratings given out by these agencies. It is only common-sense to believe these agencies downgrade those countries with less borrowing power and less repaying capacity. A very simple indicator of these is the debt-to-GDP ratio. Let us take the case of India. If Debt-to-GDP ratio increases (as this would be most likely the case in the late recession / early recovery stage of the business cycle that we are in; as the GDP would not rise as fast as the rise in debt), the agencies downgrade the ratings of the Government. If this happens, there is a double whammy effect as the existing Government bonds would lose value, investors may begin to dump and the Government would be at a disadvantage at raising money from the markets. Essentially, the market forces would be against an expansive fiscal policy. This is very pertinent in India’s case with a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 58% (compare this to Chinese Debt to GDP ratio of 18%) – so Government may not be able to follow expansive fiscal policy along with an expansive monetary policy.
If it persists with expansive monetary policy in this scenario, there would be too much money chasing too little economic activity, leading to the most commonly known economic term – Inflation. With so much political sense also attached to Inflation, no Government will be willing to let this happen. So, are we heading towards restrictive monetary and restrictive fiscal policies: not likely as this again also has a political and economic cost attached with the R-word and no one wants it. All this means is that the Government has to raise money from somewhere without losing its credit worthiness. The likely sources, I believe, would be PSU divestments, tightening of personal tax regime among other things. All this means is the Government would not be able to undertake a 'market-friendly' budget this time - expect no major tax cuts, duty cuts etc.
The scenario mentioned about India does hold true for developed economies like US (whose monetary policies are more expansive and debt-to-GDP ratio is higher). If China believes the US dollar denominated treasuries are downgradeable, it would be Armageddon – again in 2009. Brace yourself.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)